One planning insight. Two charts that caught our eye. Helping you stay the course in under three minutes.
Planning Insight | August 2026
Halftime Adjustments: A Mid-Year Tax Checkup
Nick Saban won seven national championships by telling his teams not to think about them. His famous "Process" boiled down to ignoring the scoreboard and concentrating on "what you needed to do in this drill, on this play, in this moment." Your tax year deserves the same approach. The April outcome isn't decided in April; it's decided by the plays you run between now and December. By August, most of the 2026 picture has taken shape, but there's still time to execute. Wait too long, and all you can do is read the scoreboard.
A mid-year projection is a simple exercise: estimate your full-year income, compare the tax you'll owe against what you've paid in so far, and close any gap while it's still cheap and easy to close. Here's what we're watching for as we run these for clients.
Where Withholding Drifts
The first is withholding drift. Paycheck withholding does a fine job on salary, but it routinely misses everything else. Equity compensation is the classic culprit: employers withhold a flat 22% federal on RSU vests and bonuses, and if your actual bracket is 32% or higher, every vest quietly digs a hole. Add interest income (money market yields are still doing real work), capital gains from rebalancing, or a Roth conversion, and a "we always get a refund" household can flip to owing five figures without a single life change.
The second is the safe harbor. The IRS doesn't require perfection, just that you pay in enough during the year: generally 90% of this year's tax or 100% of last year's (110% if your prior-year AGI topped $150K). Meeting the safe harbor means no underpayment penalty, no matter how large the April balance. For anyone with lumpy income, the play is often simple: rather than guessing at this year, pay in 110% of last year's number and settle up at filing. Certainty now beats precision later.
New Rules, New Math
Third, this year's projections deserve a fresh look even if your income hasn't changed, because the rules have. 2026 brings a larger SALT deduction cap, a new bonus deduction for those 65 and older, new deductions for tips and overtime, and a floor on charitable deductions for itemizers. A projection built on 2025 assumptions can miss on both sides: some clients will owe less than they expect, which opens room for Roth conversions or gain harvesting in the back half of the year; others will find a phaseout quietly eating a benefit they were counting on.
Finally, a reminder for business owners and anyone making quarterly estimates: the third-quarter payment is due September 15. If your income is running well ahead or behind plan, that's the natural moment to true things up rather than letting the gap compound into January.
None of this requires heroics. It's the tax version of winning the next play: 30 minutes of arithmetic that either confirms you're on track or hands you two or three concrete moves while they still matter.
What's New?
Trump Accounts Are Live. The new savings accounts for kids created under last year's tax law are officially up and running, including the $1,000 federal seed for eligible newborns. We're reviewing them with clients in meetings where they apply, particularly for those with children or grandchildren born recently. If you'd like a guide on the basics before then, just reach out and we'll send one over.
What Caught Our Eye
A couple of charts and graphics we found insightful this month.
The Carolinas Are Calling.
For the readers who've noticed the extra traffic on I-40, here's the data behind it. North Carolina led the nation in net domestic migration, adding 84,000 more Americans than it lost, ahead of Texas and South Carolina. The outbound list is just as telling: California, New York, and Illinois shed a combined 400,000+ residents, and the dollars tend to move with the people. For our area, that flow keeps supporting home values and the local economy, but it also means the competition for housing, schools, and tee times isn't easing anytime soon.
Triangle Tailgates Are Big Business.
Ever wonder what a packed stadium is actually worth? FY25 public records data shows attendance explains about 64% of the variance in schools' concessions and parking revenue. Locally, both NC State and UNC chart in the upper right among the nation's stronger gameday operations, with the Wolfpack posting slightly higher football concessions revenue than the Heels, proof that Carter-Finley Saturdays and Kenan Stadium afternoons are real business. The national leaders (Ohio State, Tennessee, Oregon) clear eight figures a season before a single ticket dollar is counted. The ticket, it turns out, is just the cover charge.
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